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THE ARORA REPORT HIGHER REWARDS, LOWER RISKS No Verbosity, Just Clear Actionable Information |
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| ZYX BUY CHANGE ALERT | |||||||||||||||||||||
| October 8, 2012 | Issue: YXXZYVIIIZYXIIZ10A | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ALL AROUND ALERTS | |||||||||||||||||||||
| New
subscribers:
Please see
Getting a Running Start
to get the maximum value from the All
Around Alerts. To maximize profits, minimize risks, understand
terminology, and set up trades, please see
ZYX Change Method Trade Management Guidelines.
Positions and recommendations with a time horizon of less than six
months are tracked only in the
. Please scroll down for the Model Portfolio of long-term positions and see the Real Time Feed for short-term positions. |
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| A PREMIUM INSURER AT ABOUT HALF THE BOOK VALUE | THE SUGAR HIGH PLAN | ||||||||||||||||||||
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AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP (AIG) AIG is one of the world's premium insurance companies. The company was founded in 1919 in Shanghai, China. AIG was included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from April 8, 2004 to September 22, 2008. During the fiscal crisis, AIG almost went
bankrupt and survived because of aid from the government. Now the
company has been restructured and is likely to be very profitable for
years to come. By one measure, AIG is the 29th largest public company in the world. Here is how AIG measures up to the six screens of the ZYX Change Method. Change Screen During the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve created an $85 billion facility to help the company in exchange for owning 79.9% of the equity of AIG through stock warrants. At the peak, total support from the Federal Government to AIG was as high as $182.3 billion. AIG has been selling assets to pay off the Federal Government. As the markets have recovered, AIG has been able to get significantly better prices than most expectations for the assets it has been selling. The latest sale of AIG stock by the Federal Government occurred on September 14, 2012 in which the government received about $20.7 billion. The government has received a profit of about $15.1 billion from its $182.3 billion commitment. The profit does not include the value of the remaining stake of the Federal Government which is worth about $8 billion. Ownership of the Federal Government has now been reduced to about 15.9% from 79.9%. The point is that the financial position of this company is changing rapidly for the better. Fund Flow Screen Our algorithms show that significant funds have been flowing into AIG. Our algorithms also show that Smart Money steps up and buys the stock aggressively every time the stock dips. Quantitative Analysis Screen The Quantitative Analysis Screen shows the fair value of this stock at $40.00 under present market conditions. The book value of the company is steadily rising and now stands at $60.58. Over the next five years, there is a reasonable probability that not only this stock will trade near book value but the book value will keep on rising. It is a rare opportunity to be able to buy a
premier company at about half the book value. ZYX Change Analysis Screen A big part of the credit for the resurgence of AIG goes to its CEO Bob Benmosche. Benmosche was previously CEO of MetLife. One of the issues is that Benmosche was diagnosed with cancer in 2010. He has been undergoing aggressive treatment and appears to be doing well. Looking forward, there is always the possibility that Benmosche will resign due to his health. Such an event will cause a major dip in the stock. Such a dip will be a great buying opportunity. This is the reason that the present recommendation is to not exceed 30% of the full core position size so that there is sufficient dry powder to build a core position at the appropriate time. We wish Benmosche the best of health and that he remains at the helm for a very long time. In such a case, it would be best to be content with 30% of the full core position size. Trigger Event Screen The catalyst behind a stock move will be lifting of the overhang of the shares owned by the government. Technical Analysis Screen As of this writing the stock is right up against a major technical resistance at $35.40. In our analysis, sooner or later the stock will break out. The next major resistance is $40.32 to $42.80. The first support is around $33.20 and the next support is around $31.65. The Technical Analysis Screen of the ZYX Change Method is supportive of the purchase based on back testing.
This is a high beta stock with a beta of 1.93. In other words, this stock can move almost twice as much as the market moves. This stock also has a history of trading over a wide range; this is the reason for wide zones. As always conservative investors should build most of the position near the bottom of the buy zone with full knowledge that they may miss the opportunity. On the other hand, aggressive investors who are not in the stock can dip their toe in the water right here. Another edge that ZYX Change Method automatically leads to without any effort on the part of subscribers is that almost always we are the strong hands buying from weak hands.
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The Sugar High Plan replaces the Anti
Bi-Polar Plan we have previously been following. The markets are not trading on fundamentals but are on a sugar high due to QE3 from the Fed and bond buying from the European Central Bank (ECB). Normally, a sugar high does not last very long. However, central banks have clearly indicated that they stand ready to inject another dose of sugar if the present sugar high starts waning. Even though the markets believe that there is a central bank put right under the markets and therefore there is no possibility of markets going down significantly, the history tells us that the markets have a tendency to make fools of the greatest number of people when they all take the same side. The Sugar High Plan consists of staying invested in good stocks and ETFs to enjoy the sugar high party and using antidotes against risks.
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| RISK REWARD MATRIX -- EXISTING POSITIONS / MODEL PORTFOLIO | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Markets are very dynamic. Risk reward is always in a state of flux. Risk reward changes as prices change, new data becomes available, and sentiment shifts. Further, risk reward can change dramatically as macro conditions change or markets overall change. Major changes in risk reward can happen in the blink of an eye. Even very low risk investments can result in total loss. All investors should consider diversification, investing according to their personal risk tolerance, and exercise constant vigilance using multiple additional independent sources. |
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| NEW RECOMMENDATIONS OR RECOMMENDATIONS NOT YET FILLED | |||||||||||||||||||||
All open recommendations and buy zones not included in this All Around Alert are still valid. All stop zones and target zones for positions not included in this alert remain in effect unless specified otherwise. |
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| EXISTING POSITIONS/MODEL
PORTFOLIO UPDATES Please see ZYX Change Method Trade Management Guidelines for explanations. |
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AMERIGROUP CORPORATION
(AGP)
The company manufactures popular products such
as Mac personal computers, iPhones, iPods, and iPads. The company
also operates services such as iTunes. The position is long with an average price of
$131.00. Currently, 35% of the full core position size is being
hel
Bank of America is the largest bank in the United States.
The position is long with an
average price of $7.69.
The trigger for the stock appreciation will be a recognition that the probability of a doomsday in the stock is very low. This is a very long-term position.
CIENA CORP (CIEN) CIEN is the premium optical networking company. The position is long with an average price of $12.28. Currently, 10% of the full core position size is being held What to do now? Those in the stock may continue to hold.
The company also provides an attractive dividend of about 3%. The position is long with an average price of $16.77. Currently, 25% of the full core position size is being held.
Buy Zone: $16.32 - $17.57 Target Zone: $34.00 - $38.00 Stop Zone: $12.00 - $13.73
EL PASO (EP) AND KINDER MORGAN (KMI) El Paso stock was held from an average price of $17.50. The company was acquired by Kinder Morgan (KMI) in May 2012. We recommended that subscribers tender their shares. Subscribers had several options to receive cash and Kinder Morgan securities. In the transaction, subscribers received about $29.60 worth of cash and Kinder Morgan securities. It appears that most of our subscribers decided to receive the most amount of stock. Therefore we will continue to follow KMI. Basis calculation for new stock is somewhat complex because of the issue of warrants and different options. At this point the working assumption is that KMI position is long from about $0.97 after adjusting for the cash and a warrant. The company also provides an attractive dividend of about 3.9%. What to do now? Those in the stock may continue to hold. Those not in the stock may buy on dips into the buy zone. Buy Zone: $29.31 - $33.13Target Zone: $38.00 - $40.00 Stop Zone: $18.00 - $19.73
EMPIRE DISTRICT ELECTRIC (EDE) The company also provides an attractive dividend of about 4.7%. The position is long with an average price of $18.70. Currently, 25% of the full core position size is being held.
Those not in the stock may initiate a position on dips in the buy zone. Buy Zone: $17.50 - $20.06Target Zone: $24.00 - $26.00 Stop Zone: $14.11 - $15.73 The company provides an attractive dividend yield of about 8.20% The position is long with an average price of $42.04. Currently, 80% of the full core position size is being held.
Those not in the stock may scale in within the buy zone. Buy Zone: $39.26 - $43.60Target Zone: $54.00 - $55.00 Stop Zone: $33.26 - $33.73 HALLIBURTON (HAL) The company is one of the largest oil and natural gas service provider. The position is long with an average price of $27.90. Currently, 35% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $35.40. This is a high beta stock. In other words it can move much more than the market.
Those not in the stock may initiate a position on dips in the buy zone. Target Zone: $60.00 - $80.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY NO STOP DUE TO HIGH VOLATILITY Potential entry points within the buy zone: $24.32, $25.42, $26.26, and $27.11 HERCULES OFFSHORE (HERO) The company is a provider of shallow water drilling and marine services to the oil and natural gas explorations and production industries. The company is a potential buyout target. The position is long with an average price of $2.55. Currently, 50% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $6.00.
Those not in the stock may depend on the Real Time Feed for buy signals.
Buy Zone: Due
to high volatility please depend on the Real Time Feed for buy signals. HORNBECK OFFSHORE SERVICES (HOS) The company is an operator of off shore supply vessels in support of oil and gas exploration and production industries. The company is a potential buyout target. The position is long with an average price of $13.00. Currently, 30% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $42.50.
This company is a prime buyout candidate. This stock is very volatile and can experience wide swings, this is the reason for a wide buy zone. The position is long with an average price of $27.76. Currently, 40% of the full core position size is being held.
Those not in the stock may slowly scale in a position in the buy zone. Aggressive investors may start a scale in near the high end but conservative investors may wait for a dip near the low end. Buy Zone: $20.00 - $28.00Target Zone: $41.00 - $44.00 IF THERE IS NO BUYOUT; $55.00 - $60.00 IS POSSIBLE IN A BUYOUT Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED DUE TO HIGH VOLATILITY
The company also provides an attractive dividend of about 4%. The position is long with an average price of $21.78. Currently, 5% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $27.23.
Those in the stock may consider to hold. Those not in the stock may wait for a signal in the Real Time Feed. Buy Zone: TEMPORARILY SUSPENDEDTarget Zone: $28.00 - $30.00 Stop Zone: $21.43 - $21.78 iSHARES MSCI GERMANY (EWG) This ETF represents stocks in Germany. These stocks are unduly depressed due to the European financial crisis. This ETF also provides an attractive dividend of about 2.58%. The position is long with an average price of $17.91. Currently, 5% of the full core position size is being held.
Target Zone: $25.00 - $27.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY NONE iSHARES MSCI ITALY (EWI) This ETF represents stocks in Italy. These stocks are unduly depressed due to the European financial crisis. This ETF also provides an attractive dividend of about 3.46%. The position is long with an average price of $13.85. Currently, 5% of the full core position size is being held.
Target Zone: $28.00 - $34.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY NONE iSHARES MSCI UNITED KINGDOM INDEX ETF (EWU) The ETF seeks to replicate MSCI United Kingdom Index. This ETF also provides an attractive dividend of about 3.58%.
The position is long with an average price of $14.62. Currently,
65% of the full core position size is being held.
Those not in the stock may consider scaling in the buy zone.
Buy Zone:
$14.00 - $15.50
JP MORGAN (JPM)
Those in the stock may continue to hold and add in the buy zone. Those not in the stock may consider initiating a position by scaling into the buy zone. Target Zone: $65.00 - $70.00 Stop Zone: $26.00 - $27.43 MONSTER WORLDWIDE (MWW)
The company is the operator of the largest on-line employment service in
the U.S. The company is a potential buyout target.
The position is long with an average price of $9.93. Currently, 65% of the full core position size is being held.
What to do now?
Those not in the stock and are conservative investors may not enter at this point. Buy Zone: $5.00 - $7.52 Target Zone: $14.00 - $18.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY NONE
This position will be extremely profitable when the bond bubble bursts. The position is long with an average price of $37.33. Currently, 70% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken on a specific tranche at $35.73. This is a very long-term position.
PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT EURO (EUO) This is an inverse ETF that goes up when the Euro goes down against the dollar. This position is being held for hedging purposes. The hedge is long with an average price of $17.11. Profits have been taken on the hedge as high as $22.25. Now only 15% of the original hedge is being held.
This company is one of the low risk ways to participate in the massive Information Technology migration to the cloud. The company is a potential buyout target. The position is long with an average price of $43.14. Currently, 10% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $61.10. This is a very long-term position.
Those not in the stock may wait for a signal on the Real Time Feed or a dip in the buy zone.
The company also provides an attractive dividend of about 4%. This position is long from a price of $35.50. Currently 90% of the full core position size is being hel
Those in the stock may continue to hold but not add without a signal from the Real Time Feed.
Those not in the stock may
Target Zone: $57.00 - $62.00 Stop Zone: $27.00 - $29.43 SILICON IMAGE, INC. (SIMG) Silicon Image is a semiconductor company providing wireless and wired connectivity solutions for high-definition content. The company is a potential buyout target. This position is long from a price of $2.55. Currently 50% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $8.30.
Those in the stock may continue to hold. Those not in the stock
SPDR STOXX EUROPE 50 (FEU) This ETF represents the 50 largest corporations in Europe. This ETF also provides an attractive dividend of about 4.01%. The position is long with an average price of $30.76. Currently, 15% of the full core position size is being held.
This is a very long-term position.
Those not in the stock may scale in a position only when there is a signal in the Real Time Feed.
Buy Zone:
$24.00 - $31.26 Suggested points are $26.42, $29.32, $30.53, and $31.02.
The position is long with an average price of $5.10. Currently, 70% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $6.49.
Those not in the stock may wait for a signal on the Real Time Feed. Buy Zone: TEMPORARILY SUSPENDEDTarget Zone: $9.00 - $11.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED DUE TO HIGH VOLATILITY TALBOTS (TLB) The company is primarily a retailer of women's apparel, accessories, jewelry, and gift items in the U.S. The position is long with an average price of $1.79. Currently, 15% of the full core position size is being held. The company has received a buyout offer for $2.75 cash.
Those in the stock should have tendered their shares and received cash. It appears that some subscribers have not tendered their shares. There is no merit in not tendering the shares. Those not in the stock may not enter this position.
THE ST. JOE COMPANY (JOE) The company is a real estate development company that owns 577,000 acres of land primarily in northwest Florida as well as 405,000 acres on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
The position is long with an average price of $18.00. Currently,
80% of the full core position size is being held.
Those not in the stock may consider scaling in the buy zone.
Buy Zone:
$14.50 - $18.06
WALGREEN CO. (WAG) The company also provides an attractive dividend of about 3%. The position is long with an average price of $29.60. Currently, 10% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $35.92.
Those not in the stock may initiate a very small position on dips in the buy zone. Buy Zone: $33.00 - $34.50Target Zone: $44.00 - $46.00 Stop Zone: $26.50 - $27.68
WAL-MART (WMT) Wal-Mart is the largest retailer in the world. The position is long with an average price of $58.88. Currently, 10% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $62.10. The stock recently hit a 12 year high in the middle of the market correction. The reason the stock is doing well is because the company is competing better with dollar stores.
Those in the stock may continue to to hold and add only on signals from in the Real Time Feed. Those not in the stock may enter only on signals from the Real Time Feed. Buy Zone: $57.00 - $61.62Target Zone: $85.00 - $88.00 Stop Zone: $55.00. - $56.43. YAHOO (YHOO) Yahoo is a premier internet portal that has fallen on hard times. The company's Asian assets are doing great and the value of Asian assets may be unlocked. The position is long with an average price of $14.87. Currently, 10% of the full core position size is being held.
Those in the stock may continue to hold and add on dips in the buy zone. Those not in the stock may initiate a scale in within the buy zone. Buy Zone: $12.00 - $15.02Target Zone: $21.00 - $22.00 Stop Zone: $9.73 - $10.68
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All Around Alerts track only long-term and very long-term positions that
are suitable as core portfolio holdings. A good way to increase
returns is to surround a portfolio built around the positions in the All
Around Alert with very very short-term, very short-term,
short-term, and medium-term positions as well as speculative positions that are not included in All Around Alerts but are available on the Real Time Feed. Please pay special attention to position sizes, and follow ZYX Change Method Trade Management Guidelines. New subscribers: Please see Getting a Running Start to get the maximum value from the All Around Alerts. |
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Please
make adjustments, as you see fit to suit your risk tolerance, your
experience, and market conditions. You must make your own judgments
with the help of your own personal advisor independent of the content
herein. The content herein may not be suitable for your purposes and
your situation. Nigam Arora or The Arora Report, Ltd, its directors,
its officers, its employees, and its affiliates are not your advisors. By accessing, reading or using this content, you expressly agree without exception to all Terms of Use |
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