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THE ARORA REPORT HIGHER REWARDS, LOWER RISKS No Verbosity, Just Clear Actionable Information |
| ZYX BUY CHANGE ALERT | |
| July 10, 2011 | Issue: YVIIZYXZYXIZ702 |
| ALL AROUND ALERTS | |
For positions or recommendations with a time horizon of six months or longer, an All Around Alerts issue tracks every open position from cradle to grave and every recommendation that has not yet filled. It provides Immediate Alerts for urgent actions needed on existing positions and provides one new idea in detail or revisits an existing idea in detail. On Our Radar Alerts discuss ideas that do not satisfy all six screens of the ZYX Change Method but can still be lucrative. |
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| New
subscribers:
Please see
Getting a Running Start
to get the maximum value from the All
Around Alerts. To maximize profits, minimize risks, understand
terminology, and set up trades, please see
ZYX Change Method Trade Management Guidelines.
Positions and recommendations with a time horizon of less than six
months are tracked only in the
Real Time Feed. |
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| A RARE OPPORTUNITY | BE NIMBLE PLAN |
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HALLIBURTON (HAL): A RARE OPPORTUNITY TO
TRADE LEGALLY ON INSIDE INFORMATION We do not advocate any form of insider trading or cheating. We are simply showing you the power of deduction to beat market insiders at their own game.
Change Screen It is rare to receive this type of inside information that is legal to trade on. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the world. After the crisis in Libya, about two million barrels a day of oil exports became less reliable. Saudi Arabia repeatedly stated that it has the capacity to immediately increase production to compensate for production shortfall from Libya. Government officials in developed countries, including the U.S., also repeatedly assured the oil market that Saudi Arabia was immediately increasing production. Various news wires and media outlets reported that Saudi Arabia had successfully increased the production.
Then came the surprise -- International Energy Agency (IEA) announced release of 60 million barrels of crude from strategic reserves. IEA is an autonomous organization based in Paris. IEA works to ensure reliable energy for its 28 member countries. IEA was founded to respond to the 1973/1974 oil crisis. Initial role of IEA was to coordinate a collective response to major disruptions in oil supply through the release of emergency oil stocks to the markets. The clear conclusion from IEA action is that Saudi Arabia was not able to increase its production. Watching awards of recent contracts, it is clear that Saudi Arabia is in the mode of spending what ever is necessary to rapidly increase its capacity. One of the biggest beneficiaries of the build up in Saudi Arabia is HAL This inside information is legal to trade on because we did not receive it from any person who is an insider. We reached this conclusion by connecting the dots -- which is perfectly legal. Fund Flow Screen This screen is highly supportive of a long position in HAL. Quantitative Analysis Screen Assuming global economic growth rate of 4%, continuation of the present trends in oil and gas consumption, and continuation of the present trends in production, this screen shows a target for HAL to be $110. ZYX Change Analysis Screen This screen confirms the conclusion of the Quantitative Screen. Trigger Event Screen The trigger is information from Saudi Arabia. Technical Analysis Screen This screen argues for a long position in the long-term, however it also shows that the stock is over bought in the short-term and can pull back anytime. Trade Management We will start scaling in a position when the near-term Brent Crude oil futures drop below $95. Please understand that there are several classifications of crude oil. Our entry is not linked to any other classification of oil. We will determine stop zones after the initial entry. |
We are replacing our Four Point Plan with a new Be Nimble Plan. Our Four Point Plan served us well. We correctly called the swoon in the market. Going forward, here is the summary of the composite of each category of our indicators. We will not bother you with details, as each category itself contains a large number of indicators.
The models make two adaptations in near real-time:
On both counts as described above, the technical indicators are now being significantly overweighed The batting average of our models has been 100% -- much better than our expectations. In the history of our models, technical indicators have never been given so much overweight. Further, there has never been a case where multiple indicators were not supportive of a future market direction. Here technical indicators stand alone as being very bullish. How to use this information? Since we are in uncharted territory, as described above, our plan is to be on defensive and be very nimble.The following constitute the new Be Nimble Plan:
Immediate Action Needed It is important for all subscribers to undertake an immediate review of their portfolios to ensure that there is adequate diversification between strategies. As shown by leading economic indicators from 23 countries, a simple diversification based on the number of stocks and industries will not be adequate protection in several scenarios that may come to pass. ![]() |
| RISK REWARD MATRIX -- EXISTING POSITIONS / MODEL PORTFOLIO | |
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Markets are very dynamic. Risk reward is always in a state of flux. Risk reward changes as prices change, new data becomes available, and sentiment shifts. Further, risk reward can change dramatically as macro conditions change or markets overall change. Major changes in risk reward can happen in the blink of an eye. Even very low risk investments can result in total loss. All investors should consider diversification, investing according to their personal risk tolerance and exercise constant vigilance using multiple additional independent sources. |
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| NEW RECOMMENDATIONS OR RECOMMENDATIONS NOT YET FILLED | |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP (AIG) AIG is an international insurance organization. During the financial crisis, AIG almost went bankrupt and survived because of aide from the government. Now the company has been restructured and is likely to be very profitable for years to come. The catalyst behind a stock move will be lifting of the overhang of the shares owned by the government. Buy Zone: $19.11 - $22.56 Target Zone: $45.00 - $55.00 Stop Zone: $14.73 - $17.73 Potential entry points within the buy zone: $19.11, $19.56, $20.26, and $22.26 ARM HOLDINGS (ARMH) This is a British company. It develops microprocessor architectures and designs. The company does not manufacturer but licenses its technology to others. A majority of present day smart phones and tablets are utilizing ARMH architecture. The catalysts behind the stock move will be the world going increasingly mobile and a potential buy out. Buy Zone: $14.31 - $19.11 Target Zone: $55.00 - $65.00 Stop Zone: $9.00 - $11.73 Potential entry points within the buy zone: $14.31, $15.61, $17.26, and $19.11 THE BABCOCK & WILCOCKS COMPANY (BWC) The company provides clean energy technology and services for power generation. The catalysts behind a stock move will be the world increasingly delivering energy using electricity such as in electric cars, more pollution controls, and replacement of aging power plants. Buy Zone: $19.11 - $22.61 Target Zone: $75.00 - $85.00 Stop Zone: $14.11 - $16.73 Potential entry points within the buy zone: $19.11, $20.11, $21.26, and 22.61 CENTERPOINT ENERGY (CNP) The company is a utility operating primarily in Houston, Texas. The company also provides a nice dividend. The catalyst will be a buy out. Buy Zone: $13.11 - $14.98 Target Zone: $25.00 - $30.00 Stop Zone: $9.73 - $11.73 Potential entry points within the buy zone: $13.11, $14.11, $14.57, and $14.98 CVS CAREMARK (CVS) The company operates retail pharmacies and provides pharmacy benefit management services. The catalysts will be improvement of lagging operations of the pharmacy benefit management segment, a spin off of the pharmacy benefit management segment, or replacement of the top management. Buy Zone: $24.00 - $27.95 Target Zone: $55.00 - $65.00 Stop Zone: $18.73 - $21.73 Potential entry points within the buy zone: $24.11, $25.11, $26.26, and $27.56 EL PASO CORP (EP) The company operates in natural gas transmission, exploration, and production in the U.S. The catalysts are recognition of value as the company splits into two separate companies. Buy Zone: $13.64 - $17.98 Target Zone: $35.00 - $45.00 Stop Zone: $11.43 - $12.73 Potential entry points within the buy zone: $13.64, $15.61, $16.26, and $17.51 TALBOTS (TLB) The company is primarily a retailer of women's apparel, accessories, jewelry, and gift items in the U.S. The catalysts will be management getting the fashion right, successful transition to younger demographics, cost cutting or a buy out. Buy Zone: $1.73 - $2.26 Target Zone: $8.00 - $16.00 Stop Zone: $0.33 - $0.58 Potential entry points within the buy zone: $1.73, $1.86, $2.02, and $2.26 TATA MOTORS (TTM) This is an Indian automobile company operating worldwide. The catalyst will be higher penetration of markets outside of India. Buy Zone: $14.00 - $16.73 Target Zone: $35.00 - $45.00 Stop Zone: $9.48 - $11.43 Potential entry points within the buy zone: $14.31, $15.51, $16.01, and $16.73 |
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| RISK REWARD MATRIX FOR NEW RECOMMENDATIONS | |
![]() Markets are very dynamic. Risk reward is always in a state of flux. Risk reward changes as prices change, new data becomes available, and sentiment shifts. Further, risk reward can change dramatically as macro conditions change or markets overall change. Major changes in risk reward can happen in the blink of an eye. Even very low risk investments can result in total loss. All investors should consider diversification, investing according to their personal risk tolerance and exercise constant vigilance using multiple additional independent sources. |
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| POSITIONS CLOSED AND PROFITS BOOKED | |
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Since the last All Around Alert, we closed with profit AVAV, DISH, EUO,
LPX, MOS and NTAP. On NXPI , subscribers had mixed results from slight
gain to slight loss depending upon how they executed the Four Point
Plan. We never held more than 5% of the full core position size on NXPI. Since the last ALL Around Alert, we also booked large profits on AGP, OVTI, PNSN and RHT. |
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| EXISTING POSITIONS/MODEL
PORTFOLIO UPDATES Please see ZYX Change Method Trade Management Guidelines for explanations. |
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ADOBE SYSTEMS (ADBE) Adobe is a software company primarily developing software and services for creative professionals, web analytics, collaboration, and development platforms. We are long with an
average price of $25.66.
The long-term prospects of the stock remain bright -- we are simply interested in taking advantage of the volatility in the markets to maximize profits and reduce our risk. AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS (AMAG)The company is a bio pharmaceutical company. We are long with an average price of $15.42.
Target Zone: $25.00 - $30.00 Stop Zone: $8.00 - $8.73 AMERIGROUP CORPORATION
(AGP) The company operates as a managed healthcare provider primarily focusing on people receiving healthcare benefits through government programs.
We are long with an
average price of $22.05.
APPLE (AAPL) The company manufactures popular products such as Mac personal computers, iPhones, iPods, and iPads. The company also operates services such as iTunes. We are long with an
average price of $131.00.
The company is one of the largest natural gas producers.
We are long with an
average price of $18.52.
We are long with an average price of $16.77.
Buy Zone: $12.00 - $15.80 Target Zone: $34.00 - $38.00 Stop Zone: $8.00 - $9.48
We are long with an average price of $3.99. What to do now?
Buy Zone: $2.50 - $3.85 Target Zone: $10.00 - $12.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY NONE.
COEUR D`ALENE MINES
CORPORATION (CDE) The company is a large silver miner.
We are long with an
average price of $15.46.
What to do now?
The company is a large hospital operator. We are long with an average price of $25.78. Most of our subscriber's purchase price for CYH is $26.00. We had 32.69% profit in three days or 3977.28% annualized. Most of our subscribers took partial profits around $34.00 and $30.00. What to do now?
Target Zone: $39.00 - $45.00 Stop Zone: $17.73 - $18.69 EMPIRE DISTRICT ELECTRIC (EDE) We are long with an average price of $18.70.
Buy Zone: $17.50 - $19.26 Target Zone: $22.00 - $25.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY NONE.
The company is an electricity demand response and energy management solutions provider.
HERCULES OFFSHORE (HERO) The company is a provider of shallow water drilling and marine services to the oil and natural gas explorations and production industries.
We are long with an
average price of $2.55.
HORNBECK OFFSHORE SERVICES (HOS) The company is an operator of off shore supply vessels in support of oil and gas exploration and production industries.
We are long with an
average price of $13.00.
We are long with an average price of $22.73.
Buy Zone: $20.00 - $21.60 Target Zone: $28.00 - $30.00 Stop Zone: $16.00 - $17.73
Buy
Zone: $50.00 - $58.26
INTERMUNE (ITMN) The company is a development stage biotech company.We are long with an average price of $40.17.
Buy Zone: TEMPORARILY NONE Target Zone: $60.00 - $65.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY NONE
LEAPFROG (LF) The company provides technology based learning platforms and educational toys.We are long with an average price of $4.27.
Buy Zone: $3.00 - $4.40 Target Zone: $6.50 - $7.50 Stop Zone: $3.19 - $2.95
We are long with an average price of $39.76.
Buy Zone: $37.00 - $40.00 Target Zone: $58.00 - $60.00 Stop Zone: $33.73 - $34.73
MARATHON OIL CORPORATION
(MRO) The company engages in exploration, and production, of oil.
The company is the operator of the largest on-line employment service in the U.S.
We are long with an
average price of $15.22.
What to do now?
Buy Zone: $11.26 - $14.15 Target Zone: $24.00 - $30.00 Stop Zone: $10.73 - $11.83
The company is a provider of on line movie rental and streaming services.
We are long with an
average price of $101.00.
The company is a producer of image sensor semiconductors.
We are long with an
average price of $12.50.
We are long with an average price of $3.18.
Buy Zone: $2.00 - $3.15 Target Zone: $5.00 - $6.00 Stop Zone: TEMPORARILY NONE
RED HAT (RHT) The company is the premier provider of open source Linux software and services.
We are long with an
average price of $43.75.
SILICON IMAGE, INC. (SIMG)
We are long with an
average price of $2.55.
THE ST. JOE COMPANY
(JOE) We are long with an average price of $18.00. We are also holding a 5% trade around position from $19.50.
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Please
make adjustments, as you see fit to suit your risk tolerance, your
experience, and market conditions. You must make your own judgments
with the help of your own personal advisor independent of the content
herein. The content herein may not be suitable for your purposes and
your situation. Nigam Arora or The Arora Report, Ltd, its directors,
its officers, its employees, and its affiliates are not your advisors. By accessing, reading or using this content, you expressly agree without exception to all Terms of Use |
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